Sunday Prop Builder
Every prop below is graded the same way: model projection against the posted line, the size of that gap, and the price being offered. Edge size decides whether it's an anchor or a garnish — not EV% on its own.
Top tier — real model edge, these are your anchors
| Player | Prop | Line | Proj | Diff | EV | Odds / Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hicks (RP) | Strikeouts | o1.5 | 2.36 | +0.9 | 25.0% | +165 bet365 |
| C. Montgomery (SS) | Hits+Runs+RBI | o1.5 | 2.08 | +0.6 | 16.7% | +120 DK |
| H. Goodman (C) | Hits+Runs+RBI | o1.5 | 2.22 | +0.7 | 18.3% | +112 DK |
| K. McGonigle (SS) | Hits+Runs+RBI | o1.5 | 1.99 | +0.5 | 17.0% | +135 DK |
| B. Witt Jr. (SS) | Total Bases | o1.5 | 1.91 | +0.4 | 16.4% | +133 DK |
| J. Burger (1B) | Hits+Runs+RBI | o1.5 | 1.86 | +0.4 | 16.3% | odds not shown |
| J. Caminero (3B) | Total RBIs | o0.5 | 0.79 | +0.3 | 16.5% | +155 Betway |
| Z. Gelof (3B) | Total RBIs | o0.5 | 0.72 | +0.2 | 18.2% | +179 DK |
| E. Suarez (DH) | Total Bases | o1.5 | 1.80 | +0.3 | 19.2% | +170 bet365 |
| M. Vargas (3B) | Total RBIs | o0.5 | 0.77 | +0.3 | 17.3% | +165 SIA |
Hicks is the play of the day. Nearly a full strikeout of margin on the projection and the best EV on the whole board. That's not a coin flip, that's the model seeing something the market hasn't priced.
Second tier — thin edge, odds carrying the value
These have diff sitting at 0.0, meaning the model and the line basically agree. The EV% is coming almost entirely from plus-money pricing, not a real projection gap. Fine for small stakes or parlay legs, not anchors.
- K. McGonigle RBI o0.5 (+266)
- G. Torres RBI o0.5 (+339)
- S. Perez RBI o0.5 (+230)
- T. Ward RBI o0.5 (+255) / TB o1.5 (+220)
- T. Grisham RBI o0.5 (+250) / TB o1.5 (+220)
- D. Dingler RBI o0.5 (+226)
Fade these — EV looks good, the model is below the line
- E. Carter TB o1.5 — proj 1.30 vs line 1.5 (diff -0.2)
- E. Tovar RBI o0.5 — proj 0.41 (diff -0.1)
- J. Cronenworth RBI o0.5 — proj 0.36 (diff -0.1)
- T. Rumfield RBI o0.5 — proj 0.44 (diff -0.1)
These are the ones a sharp bettor skips even though they'd catch a casual eye scanning EV%. The number's negative — it's just dressed up by long odds.
If you want a parlay
Pull from the top tier only, across different games so you aren't correlated. Hicks K's + Montgomery HRR + Suarez TB is a clean three-leg, all real edges — though Hicks and Montgomery share a game, so swap in Goodman or Witt if you want zero correlation.
Projections and EV are model outputs, not guarantees, and prices move fast. 18+ Ontario Only. Bet responsibly — ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600.