Home Run Picks · Tuesday, September 8, 2026 · MLB

Tonight's Home Run Board

Three home run props I like tonight. Obviously home run bets are high variance, so these aren't plays I'm throwing 2 units on. But all three have legit matchup numbers behind them and we're getting plus money across the board.

PLAYS: 3STAKE EACH: 0.25uALL 3 PARLAY: ~94.4x

#1 · Rays @ Braves · 7:15 PM ET

Junior Caminero HR

+286

Best: +325 bet365

Probably my favourite matchup of the three. AJ Smith-Shawver has been getting hit hard by right-handed bats, and Caminero is a righty who does his damage in the air. He covers almost Smith-Shawver's entire pitch mix.

Caminero, last 10 games

.525 SLG
.250 ISO
51.6% hard-hit
~13% barrel rate

AJ Smith-Shawver vs RHB (small sample)

.346 average against
.538 SLG
1.023 OPS
33% ground-ball rate

The matchup model has Caminero leaving the yard roughly 32% of the time here, which is a massive number against the +286 we're getting.

Play: Junior Caminero HR +286

#2 · Mets @ Marlins · 6:40 PM ET

Heriberto Hernandez HR

+337

Best: +375 bet365

This one is basically a Sean Manaea fade. Hernandez has crushed left-handed pitching all year and his recent form is better than the season line — he's getting the ball in the air and absolutely smoking it.

Hernandez vs LHP / last 10

.543 SLG vs LHP
.879 OPS vs LHP
.289 ISO
17.4% ground balls

Sean Manaea, recent form

5.87 ERA last 5 starts
7.79 ERA last 3 starts
~18% barrel rate allowed
Last 60 RHB: .363 xBA, .744 xSLG

Best price of the three and Manaea's barrel numbers are ugly. I'll take my shot.

Play: Heriberto Hernandez HR +337

#3 · Reds @ Dodgers · 10:10 PM ET

Teoscar Hernandez HR

+286

He homered yesterday. I don't care — guys are apparently allowed to hit home runs on consecutive days. Teoscar has been destroying the baseball and now he gets another lefty.

Teoscar, last 10 games

.649 SLG (.719 xSLG)
.244 ISO
64%+ hard-hit
18% barrel rate

Nick Lodolo vs last 60 RHB

.350 xBA
.640 xSLG
.400 xwOBA
53.5% hard-hit, 16.3% barrel

Hottest hitter of the three in exactly the pitcher profile I want him facing. Yesterday's homer doesn't scare me off at all.

Play: Teoscar Hernandez HR +286

HR Lottery Ticket

All three home runs · roughly 94.4-to-1

Junior Caminero HR +286
Heriberto Hernandez HR +337
Teoscar Hernandez HR +286

This is obviously pizza-money territory. Don't turn three home run props into some ridiculous 2-unit parlay because we suddenly forgot how baseball works. But as a small longshot sprinkle, I like it.

My order

1. Junior Caminero HR +286 — best overall matchup for me.
2. Heriberto Hernandez HR +337 — best price, and Manaea's recent barrel numbers are terrible.
3. Teoscar Hernandez HR +286 — hottest hitter of the three and another very good matchup against a lefty.

See tonight's full card Where to get these prices

Home run props are high-variance bets and are staked accordingly. All picks for entertainment purposes only. Bet responsibly. 18+ Ontario only. Always shop lines across books for the best available number. SharpestPicks.ca only references Ontario regulated sportsbooks.